According to the authors of this study, environmental migration has recently become the primary source of population growth in the Middle East and North Africa, as environmental degradation from extreme events has created the environmental refugee concept with a variety of manners affecting lives.
In line with this, they propose to investigate how environmental degradation and climate extremes influence migration in the MENA region, using a hybrid approach that combines regional climate modeling (RegCM4.4) with statistical analysis (ordered logit). The analysis covers 65 countries and projects impacts for the periods 2021–2050 and 2051–2080.
The study assesses how key climate variables – maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation – along with indicators such as hot days, tropical nights, and dry days, affect net migration rates.
Findings show that minimum temperatures are projected to increase in all major cities, while precipitation is expected to decline in mid-latitude and Mediterranean regions.
Statistical results indicate a positive relationship between rising minimum temperatures and net migration, and a negative relationship between precipitation and migration. These trends suggest that worsening heat and water scarcity may encourage migration toward cooler regions.
Learn more about this study here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564
Reference
An, N., Demiralay, Z., Ucal, M., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2025). The nexus between migration and environmental degradation based on fundamental climate variables and extreme climate indices for the MENA domain. Climate Services, 38