Climate conditions, in complex interrelations with other socioenvironmental, economic, political and cultural factors, significantly play a key role in shaping population density and movement. But these dynamics remain poorly understood.
This study examines how climate conditions, together with socioenvironmental, economic, political, and cultural factors, shape international migration patterns.
Using temperature-related climate indices, the authors assess the sensitivity of migration to climate change across 160 countries and regions.
Results show that mid- to high-latitude countries with cooler baseline climates are projected to experience increased migration inflows, while low-latitude countries are likely to see growing outflows. Climate sensitivity is strongest in higher-GDP countries, whereas lower-GDP countries show less dependence on baseline climate.
A predictive model combining climate and GDP projections suggests that low-GDP, low-latitude countries will face worsening conditions and increasing migration pressure by the end of the century.
The study’s results underscore the growing role of economic factors and calls for the integration of climate justice into migration policy to support vulnerable populations in a warming world.
Learn more about this study here: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02811-2
Reference
Yang, X., Chen, D., Wahab, I. et al. Evidence of climate and economic drivers affecting migration in an unequal and warming world. Commun Earth Environ 6, 782 (2025)